Screen Play

Is the Glass half full or half empty for the Web-Connected Toy Market?

2009-08-21T12:43:00.000-04:00

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Is the Glass half full or half empty for the Web-Connected Toy Market?

2009-08-21T12:33:00.003-04:00

Stats, stats and more stats. We are a people that love numbers. We love them because they help to verify who we are & what we’re doing. We rely on stats to let us know that we’re productive, profitable, that we’re reaching our target audiences, completing projects faster and how of course: how this all compares to our competitors.

Companies commission studies that are designed to create stats and validate their offerings. These studies are often biased or poorly executed with small sample sizes, but they serve their purpose in legitimizing an entity with numbers.

Just to give you one example on how much we value these numbers, just take a look at the Cosmetics & Toiletries USA 2009 report completed by Kline. (http://www.klinegroup.com/reports/cia4h.asp ). They value their report on the industry at $22,000. That’s a lot of dough for what could very well be a lot of hot air.

I spent a great deal of my time at McGill University in Montreal in stats classes trying to understand how you can really execute a valid study on a topic. The answer is that it is way more complicated than the numbers would have you believe. What is statistically significant is often a factor of how you define constructs the constructs you’re testing, and of course: the types of individuals that are used in study and the context they are tested in.

Recently the NPD Group released their stats on the first 6 months in terms of sales for the Toy Industry. These numbers painted more of a grey picture then a black one overall. Simply put:

“Toy sales totaled $7.81 billion, versus $7.95 billion a year ago, for the period Jan. 4 through July 4, NPD said Monday. The biggest sales gains came in the action-figure, building-set and board-game categories. Demand fell for Web-connected toys. Action-figure sales rose 13% to $650 million. Building-set sales increased 20% to $340 million. Board-game sales were up 10% to $353 million. Sales of Web-connected toys -- which combine a physical toy with an Internet site -- dropped 43% to nearly $149 million.” (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-toy-sales-down-2-this-year-2009-08-17 )

Now, sales figures are a lot more reliable than a lot of industry statistics. Sales figures don’t lie. They simply tell it like it is. This sold. This didn’t. Here’s how much total sales were. Period.

Many toy manufacturers, buyers, designers and industry experts are going to interpret these numbers over the next few days, weeks and months, and this is going to yield some interesting results in terms of the web-connected toy sector.

Although it is true that sales were almost cut in half in this sector in the first 6 months of this year compared to last, let us not forget some of the basic rules of stats that we reviewed above. For example: If you have 1,250 different doll products and sales dropped 43% overall for that category, this could mean many different things. If Barbie accounted for 85% of the total sales for those 1,250 companies combined, we’d have to conclude that its really just Barbie that’s taken a dive. Or, perhaps about 600 companies saw a small amount of growth, and a certain type of doll company was bringing total sales down.

In the case of web-connected toys, the stats are going to be gaudy and inflated, simply because there are so few companies who are playing in this space, and so few products on the market (let alone: quality products).

You have a small sample of major players that include Mattel (Fairy Toys & Funkeys) Irwin Toys ( Me2) Ganz with Webkinz, a host of other similar plush related web-connected products, Hidden City Games (Bella Sara) Chaotic USA and some new players who have yet to launch. There are of course a few others, but this sector of the industry is in its infancy. It is small, touch-and-go, and is still exploring how children engage with the computer, what their expectations & needs are, and how to go about developing compelling products in this category.

Another issue is, do these sales figures even understand the complexity that is web-connected gaming and products? For example: Disney has released a line of Club Penguin toys to the market. This toys aren’t “web-connected” per-se, but their popularity is based entirely on a children’s virtual world. Shouldn’t the sale of these products be incorporated into these stats as well?

Even if these numbers were considered, what would be more interesting at this point would be to see which of the above mentioned companies have the biggest market share in this category? My guess would be Webkinz, so perhaps these numbers are actually indicating that sales for Plush Web-Connected toys are declining, and perhaps others are not.

I really believe that the glass is half full regarding the sale of web-connected toys. These toys also tend to be somewhat more pricey, and as we all know, times are tough and consumers have been extremely careful about the kinds of products they want to commit to at the moment. Come Christmas time, I have feeling that when shoppers are looking for that new and cool toy for their sons, daughters, nieces and nephews: they’ll take a good hard look at the web-connected category. This category can offer engaging, personalized and in depth play experiences for both the child and the whole family. I really do believe that this 43% means 0%.

ALICE IS IN WONDERLAND – BUT ARE YOU?

2009-08-07T11:48:00.006-04:00

Everyone and their uncle is excited about Tim Burton's film adaptation of Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland, and they should be! This film will take you on a magical journey through an imaginary world where anything can happen and often it happens twice.

There’s nothing quite like the passive yet cerebral activity of watching a good movie. Still: our generation loves to get our hands dirty with our favorite brands, and the video / online gaming industry is more than happy to oblige. In this case, Disney Interactive Studios will be handling the interactive side of Alice In Wonderland, releasing a brand-new video game adaptation of the classic tale. It will be available for Wii, DS and Windows-based PCs.

Do I even need to tell you what the game is about? Not really.

As imaginative as Alice in Wonderland is, the concepts behind the gaming executions of the story are as predictable and boring as can be.

According to reports, players will play Alice as she travels through wonderland. You connect with characters like the Mad Hatter to the Cheshire Cat to solve puzzles and try and defeat the Red Queen to restore Wonderland.

Basically … you’ll play a game that’s 95% similar to every game that’s ever been adapted from a film.

In my opinion, Disney has missed a huge opportunity here.

The Matrix video game that was released after the success of the film gave game-players the opportunity to select one of 2 basically inconsequential characters in the film, however, the narrative that is developed shows what was happening elsewhere to the primary story and even included supplementary film footage when you passed a level of the game.

This is just one way to expand the narrative, allowing people to dig deeper into the story, really get their hands dirty and allow them to experience amazing worlds and adventures at a more interactive level.

Why would anyone want to be Alice? I think Disney has missed a huge point here. Gaming is about fantasy, role playing and imagination. I think its great that Alice is in Wonderland, but what about the rest of us? With a simple avatar creation feature, we could have our own turn in Wonderland and hopefully visit never before parts of the world, and meet never before seen characters.

This is something that virtual world designers understand very well. Disney has always been the master of linear storytelling, but in this case: this property required more. Mickey Mouse, Hanna Montana and the Little Mermaid could get away with a formulaic video extension and it would be fun, potentially awesome! But Alice in Wonderland is special.

It’s fantastical.

It’s unique.

It’s thought provoking.

It’s wild.

It’s creative.

It’s a work of art.

I just wish the video game version did Lewis Carroll justice.

Am I wrong?

What's so super about Superheroes?

2009-03-31T10:24:00.006-04:00

My girlfriend and I took her niece & nephew to one of their friends 3rd birthday party over the weekend. It was your typical mini-people birthday bash. You had kids playing in the jungle gym, climbing & sliding all over the place. You had kids driving around in toy cars bumping into everything in sight. You had bouncy things to bounce on and delicious treats to snack on. What seemed different to me was the clothing rack that they made available for the kids. They had a bunch of Halloween type dress-up options for the kids: something I never remember having when my friends or myself were turning 3. (its possible we did, but I would've been too busy eyeing the birthday cake to notice). One of the little tykes quickly decked himself out in the lone Spiderman costume and then promptly went over to the face painter to complete his transformation with a freshly painted Spidermask. As he was slinging his way around the party I began to wonder: How is Spiderman still so popular?

Now - this question may seem ridiculous at first. I imagine most people would argue that Spiderman's appearance on the big screen (3 times) has a lot to do with Spiderman's continued success. Others may say that it boils down to product placement, kids developing an interest because, well: Spiderman is everywhere! On lunchboxes, briefs, cups, plates, toy cars, napkins, band-aids, etc. How could you not get at least a little curious about this Spiderguy. But that's not good enough for me. I mean, kids today have an endless amount of options when it comes to the characters they can love and get excited about. How is it that Spiderman, Batman & Superman haven't faded into the background?

Answer: In order to take down the champs you have to challenge them to a battle & frankly: No one is stepping up to the plate.

Seriously speaking, I think that the real reason why these characters remain as successful as they are is because we've basically stopped developing new hero's, perhaps because we're too scared to enter an arena with Superman, Spiderman, Batman & Ironman. Hmmmm notice a trend in those names? Perhaps we need a female superhero to come along and steal some thunder! (Wonderwoman really isn't that cool - lets be honest). Or, perhaps we'll need to talk to the creators of the TV Show Heroes to solve this mystery. Although I've never watched the show myself, Mary Plasterer (Cieo's creative director) is hooked! Now, she's not our target audience for this examination, but the fact remains that everyday superhero's have slowly made their way into the mainstream and for adults anyways, are starting to steal some face time from the Superones. Why isn't this happening as much with kids?

Super Why! is a fantastic educational television program for kids, but I doubt those guys will last a few rounds with Batman when those super-readers turn 7. Hannah Montana is a Superstar, but rocking out a solid tune is hardly as cool as swinging from a building using spiderwebs. Transformers toys have done very well since the film, but it’s hard to find that true soft spot for cars that all sound like James Earl Jones on a bad day.

I guess what makes Superman, Batman & Spiderman so endlessly compelling is that they lead double lives, like James Bond, Indiana Jones or Hannah Montana for that matter. I suppose at the end of the day, we all just want to be everything that we are, everything that we're not and everything that we simply can't be all at the same time, and these superhero's bring kids closer to that imaginary reality. Or it could just be the fact that kids see that little twinkle in their Dad's eyes when they're watching a Batman cartoon together. But ... it could just be the lunchboxes and briefs.

What do you think?

Get psyched for a Smurftastic future!

2009-03-10T16:40:00.005-04:00

The Smurfs are one of those things that you simply cannot analyze too much. They're little, they're blue, they live in mushroom-land, and although there's only 1 female in the species: they've survived and they're making a comeback in a big way.

Lets start with the movie & then look at the toy side of things.

Thanks to Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation, the Smurfs will be coming back to life in the form of a live-action/animated motion picture.

Sony obtained film rights from Lafig Belgium via Jordan Kerner (who stays on as a producer of the film). Kerner had secured film rights to the Smurfs property in 2002 and since then has been working on the 3-D CGI feature at Paramount/Nickelodeon.

I was a definitely a fan of the Hanna-Barbera cartoon, however, I really had no idea what I was watching & why I was watching it. I think as long as I had high-fructose cereal, a blanket and the knowledge that a grilled cheese was a mere "maaaaaaa" away: I'd watch anything! Who knows why the Smurfs were as popular as they were (and obviously still are in many ways) but the brand is truly a remarkable success story.

“The Smurfs are one of the best-known franchises, and among the most beloved collection of characters in the world,” Columbia co-president Doug Belgrad said. “We’re very excited to introduce a new generation to Papa Smurf, Smurfette and the other smurftastic Smurfs in all of their ‘three-apple-tall’ glory.”

O.k., so a movie is on its way. The real questions for all of us Smurf-crazed fans is: who is making the toys & what exactly can we expect in that regard!?

Answer: JAKKS Pacific, Inc.

Their 2009 Collection of Smurf Plush is expected to include: individual characters, Beanbag Plush, Plush with DVD, Theme Packs, Accessory Packs, Vehicle Packs, Mushroom House Play-set & Deluxe Windmill Play-set.

I wonder if kids today will fall under that same bizzare Smurf spell. My guess is: If Alvin & the Chipmunks can do it: Papa Smurf will be juuuuuuuust fine.

Mattel shouts "Digital Revolution" from the Javits Center Rooftops!

2009-02-25T11:47:00.002-05:00

As a Toy Designer there is no single event that I look forward to more than the NYC Toy Fair in February. I love mingling with the industry, hearing all about everyone's highs & lows, walking through the endless maze of toy booths, shaking hands with a giant stuffed something at various points and of course: playing with everything companies will let you get your hands on.

I was somewhat surprised to see how many companies were putting out the "same old-same old" type products, but then again: there will always be a market for dolls, cars, plastic figurines & plush toys. The reason is simple: these toys leave room for kids to fill in the blank with their imagination. They truly define the industry in many ways and I wish those companies developing such quality products continued success & prosperity.

That being said: my fascination with the Toy Industry related to 1 thing and 1 thing only: Innovation in play & learning.

At Cieo, we've been working on some exciting web-connected toy concepts & electronic gaming ideas as well. When we started showcasing our products to the industry 2 years ago, there was Webkinz and ... well: Webkinz.

At last years toy fair, we saw the wave of web-connected toys spread slow and steady throughout the industry. Then Disney & Techno Source worked together to develop MAGICAL DISNEY FAIRIES™ PIXIE HOLLOW TOYS and all bets were off.

This year, another Toy Giant is signaling that things are changing in the Toy Industry. Ladies & Gentleman, if you were hoping this digital revolution was a fad, its time to let go of those dreams & start taking notes.

Mattel has introduced 2 new web-connected toys. The first is Xtractor dinosaurs for boys ($19.99) . This product connect to an online world where kids use the "DNA" information they "extracted" from their dinos to design creatures and take them to battle against other kids creations.

For girls, Mattel introduced FAMPS (Feelings, Attitudes, Moods, and Personalities). FAMPS ($16.99 for a starter kit) rely on emotion, mood, and personality to customize their desktop, e-mail, IM, wallpapers, e-cards, etc. This concept is well designed, simple, cute and extremely innovative in that it is the first toy concept that I've ever seen that directly negotiates mood and emotional intelligence during play. The product is dead simple and perhaps lacks in play value, but the table is set for them to expand this line and I believe that they'll do so quite successfully in years to come.

That's right people: YEARS TO COME!
These products aren't going anywhere!